Stats review: Week 16 update

As a new thing we will run through the stats and have a look at some specific questions that have been raised during the week and could be fun to have a look at. If you want us to have a look at something specific, please write to us. But first we look at the updated alternative tables.

Updated alternative tables:

We use the following measures:

TSR, Total Shots Ratio, is a team’s share of the total shots in their matches. This is defined as:

TSR=Total shots by team/Total shots by team and opponent

SoTR, Shots on Target Ratio, is a team’s share of the total shots on target in their matches. This is defined as:

SoTR=Total shots on target by team/Total shots on target by team and opponent

PDO, is a measure from hockey, that has been applied to football. Our use of it is to evaluate how lucky/unlucky a team has been during the season. PDO is defined as:
PDO=1000x(Saving%+Scoring%).

The table is sorted by SoTR, which is our favourite indicator for quality.

For last week’s detailed review and table – click here.

Comments:

Based on SoTR Esbjerg and AaB are this weekend’s biggest losers. Both were inferior to their opponents in creating scoring chances and as a result they have been dropped from the leading group. Their opponents, FC Nordsjælland and SønderjyskE both improved, along with FC Vestsjælland that performed well in Aarhus. New leader is FC Copenhagen that moved past FC Midtjylland to claim the front spot. Viborg are still the luckiest team in the league (based on PDO), although a 4-1 loss in Copenhagen caused their PDO to decrease a bit (from 1157). Offensively they were efficient/lucky as always with Dalgaard scoring on Viborg’s only shot on target for the entire game. SønderjyskE are still the unluckiest team in the league, although their PDO increased a bit from last week (864).

We now move to the questions:

Hypothesis 1: Is Boulahrouz a difference maker?

Boulahrouz have had a fantastic start in Brøndby. Four games played with four clean sheets and three wins to follow. This has made Danish media to hasten Brøndby to renew the contract of Boulahrouz that will end next summer. But have Brøndby really improved their game with the Cannibal in the starting line-up? Let’s look at the stats. If we compare Brøndby in the first twelve matches without Boulahrouz to the recent four games:

First twelve games (no Cannibal):

Goals allowed: 1.5 per game

Shots allowed:  12.80 per game

Shots on target allowed: 5.17 per game

PDO (luck indicator, average 1000): 890

SoTR: 57,24 %

Last four games (with Cannibal):

Goals allowed: 0 per game

Shots allowed: 14.25 per game

Shots on target allowed: 4.00 per game

PDO (luck indicator, average 1000): 1231

SoTR: 61,90 %

Okay. So what does this say? Well, the main reason for the hype is probably the first line. Four clean sheets in a row is something quite unique. But if we look at shots allowed, Brøndby are actually allowing more shots than before. As we have mentioned in other reviews, this could be due to good defending, forcing opponents to attempt more from the distance. If we instead look at shots on target allowed, which in our opinion is a better indicator for chances allowed, Brøndby are allowing 1.17 shots less per game. So this is all good, signalling that Boulahrouz actually made an impact (although the sample is so small that it will not be statiscally significant). If we look at the next line, the PDO (or as we call it: the luck indicator), it seems Brøndby have went from a long period where Brøndby in average have been unlucky to a period of luck (1231 is high!). Just think about the wrongly disallowed goal of Søren Larsen or the missed sitter from Darko Bodul. In most cases Brøndby would have allowed a few goals and this clean sheet story would not have been told. And we would probably not have had all this Boulahrouz-hype. Nevertheless Brøndby seems to be improving their overall game performance, their SoTR has went from 57,24% to an impressive 61,90%.

Conclusion: The clean sheet record can mainly be credited to luck. Nevertheless Brøndby are improving on a lot of measures, indicating that Boulahrouz has made a positive impact. So our conclusion is that Boulahrouz seems to be a difference maker.

Hypothesis 2: Can AGF fans go home when the Georgian guys enter?

When we watch AGF play and one of the three Georgian players enter (Devdariani, Skhirtladze and Vatsadze) we get the feeling that it will not change anything for the better. Whether it is due to lack of confidence (could be, they are not exactly fan favourites and boos have been heard) or just lack of quality is not really possible to evaluate for us, but they rarely impress us. You would think it is the confidence part since AGF have kept them for so many years (combined eleven seasons). Let us look at the numbers from this season, one player at a time:

Mate Vatsadze:

Minutes played: 107

Goals scored by player: 1

Score when playing: 1-2

Goals per 90 minutes: 0.84

Goals allowed per 90 minutes: 1.68

Davit Skhirtladze

Minutes played: 302

Goals scored by player: 0

Score when playing: 6-7

Goals per 90 minutes: 1.78

Goals allowed per 90 minutes: 2.09

David Devdariani

Minutes played: 140

Goals scored by player: 1

Score when playing: 6-5

Goals per 90 minutes: 3.86

Goals allowed per 90 minutes: 3.21

AGF in total

Minutes played: 1440

Score when playing: 24-26

Goals per 90 minutes: 1.5

Goals allowed per 90 minutes: 1.63

The story is actually not as clear-cut as we predicted. AGF are losing when Vatsadze and Skhirtladze are playing, but only by one goal. They are actually winning when Devdariani is playing. Compared to how they are doing in general they should just play with him all the time. This would actually also make games more interesting. His 140 minutes on the pitch have resulted in eleven goals! That is more than seven goals per game.

Conclusion: The Georgians are not really making things worse. And if Devdariani comes on you should stick to your seat as goals are in store.

Efficiency table

Let us end this review with the efficiency table. We still believe that Viborg's top scorer Dalgaard signing for Brøndby in the upcoming transfer window could make this table look more ordinary. The clubs should move towards the centre over the course of the season.